Epidemiological situation of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the Rostov region: analysis and forecast
E. V. Kovalev, 
T. I. Tverdokhlebova,
G. V. Karpushenko,
E. G. Erganova,
V. V. Agafonova,
A. A. Ryndich,
A. G. Suladze,
D. S. Kolpakov,
N. N. Dolgova,
N. V. Aleksanina,
A. V. Aleshukina,
A. R. Litovko,
G. S. Aleshukin,
V. V. Denisenko
T. I. Tverdokhlebova,
G. V. Karpushenko,
E. G. Erganova,
V. V. Agafonova,
A. A. Ryndich,
A. G. Suladze,
D. S. Kolpakov,
N. N. Dolgova,
N. V. Aleksanina,
A. V. Aleshukina,
A. R. Litovko,
G. S. Aleshukin,
V. V. Denisenko https://doi.org/10.21886/2219-8075-2020-11-3-69-78
Abstract
Objective: monitoring, analysis and forecast of the spread of new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the Rostov region.
Materials and methods: analysis of data on the incidence of COVID-19 in the Rostov region, obtained on the basis of agencies: Department of the Federal service for supervision of consumer protection and human welfare in the Rostov region, Center of hygiene and epidemiology in Rostov region, Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology, as well as the monitoring of information on the Internet sites of the Government of the Rostov region and the regional headquarters for the fight against the spread of COVID-19. Application of the SEIR analytical platform to build a mathematical model for predicting the spread of infection in the Rostov region.
Results: the article presents an analysis of the epidemiological situation for the incidence of COVID-19 in the Rostov region, analyzes the effectiveness of preventive and anti-epidemic measures with the ability to predict the development of the epidemiological process in the region.
About the Authors
E. V. Kovalev
Department of the Federal service for supervision of consumer protection and human welfare in the Rostov region;
Rostov State Medical University
Yevgeny V. Kovalev, head physician of Department of the Federal service for supervision of consumer protection and human welfare in the Rostov region
Rostov-on-Don
T. I. Tverdokhlebova
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology;
Rostov State Medical University
Tatyana I. Tverdokhlebova, Dr. Sci. (Med.), Director of the Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Rostov-on-Don
G. V. Karpushenko
Center of hygiene and epidemiology in the Rostov region;
Rostov State Medical University
Harry V. Karpushchenko, Cand. Sci. (Med.), head physician Center of hygiene and epidemiology in the Rostov region
Rostov-on-Don
E. G. Erganova
Department of the Federal service for supervision of consumer protection and human welfare in the Rostov region
Ekaterina G. Erganova, deputy head physician
Rostov-on-Don
V. V. Agafonova
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Viktoriya V. Agafonova, Cand. Sci. (Biol.), head of the department of scientific and technical activities
Rostov-on-Don
A. A. Ryndich
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Antonina A. Ryndich, Cand. Sci. (Med.), head of the department of epidemiology surveillance of HIV infection
Rostov-on-Don
A. G. Suladze
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Alexander G. Suladze, Cand. Sci. (Med.), head physician the centre for the fight against AIDS
Rostov-on-Don
D. S. Kolpakov
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Dmitry S. Kolpakov, head of the clinical and diagnostic laboratory
Rostov-on-Don
N. N. Dolgova
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Nina N. Dolgova, epidemiologist department of epidemiology surveillance of HIV infection
Rostov-on-Don
N. V. Aleksanina
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Natalya V.Aleksanina, Cand. Sci. (Biol.), senior researcher at the laboratory of sanitary Microbiology of water bodies and human microbial ecology
Rostov-on-Don
A. V. Aleshukina
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Anna V. Aleshukina, Dr. Sci. (Med.), head of the laboratory of Virology, Microbiology and molecular biological research methods
Rostov-on-Don
A. R. Litovko
Center of hygiene and epidemiology in the Rostov region
Anna R. Litovko, head of the laboratory of virological research at the Center for hygiene and epidemiology
Rostov-on-Don
G. S. Aleshukin
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Gennady V.Aleshukin, engineer, laboratory of Virology, Microbiology and molecular biological research methods
Rostov-on-Don
V. V. Denisenko
Rostov research Institute of Microbiology and Parasitology
Viktor V. Denisenko, engineer, laboratory of Virology, Microbiology and molecular biological research methods
Rostov-on-Don
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Review
For citations:
Kovalev E.V., Tverdokhlebova T.I., Karpushenko G.V., Erganova E.G., Agafonova V.V., Ryndich A.A., Suladze A.G., Kolpakov D.S., Dolgova N.N., Aleksanina N.V., Aleshukina A.V., Litovko A.R., Aleshukin G.S., Denisenko V.V. Epidemiological situation of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the Rostov region: analysis and forecast. Medical Herald of the South of Russia. 2020;11(3):69-78. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21886/2219-8075-2020-11-3-69-78
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